Casino Player Fallacy in Roulette Explained

The vast majority of roulette players lose. It’s not because roulette is impossible to beat. This article discusses the typical pitfalls and reasons for players losing. If you think you’re different and have it all figured out, perhaps think again. Remember that almost all players think they have a good grasp of the concepts. Nearly all are wrong.

There are numerous legitimately effective methods that beat even online roulette (only when real dealers are used).

Why do most players lose?

The obvious answer is their strategy doesn’t work. But there’s a deeper level to understanding this question. It lies in the psychology of players.

Before continuing, understanding truth isn’t always popular. In fact often it’s not popular, because players have their own beliefs, and tend to feel threatened when any information challenges their beliefs. The same happens with ordinary people, but casino players are a special breed of people. They are often superstitious and see patterns where none really exist. This leads them to irrational and incorrect understanding of reality.

For example, a streak of 10 reds on the roulette winning number board (marquee) may appear like a strong trend. One player may say the streak will continue. Another will say black is “due”. Which is correct? Neither.

Streaks of either red or black are normal behavior. Whether the wheel is real, or spins are from a random number generator, it is inevitable that streaks of colors or numbers will occur. In the vast majority of cases, they are meaningless.

The mindset of average players

Most players understand the example in the previous paragraph. They’ll even laugh at players who hold such irrational beliefs. But they don’t understand their own beliefs are just as ridiculous. Simply their roulette strategies are based on fallacies of their own. However, the players don’t recognize this because of the complexity of their bet selection strategies.

For example, a strategy may me based on the law of a third. This law states that after 37 spins, about ONE THIRD of the numbers will be repeats.

The player will state the law is undeniable because never in their lifetime have they seen 37 spins without some repeated numbers. It sounds convincing, but here’s where they go wrong . . .

On spin 1, say #32 won.

On spin 2, there’s a 1 in 37 chance that 32 will spin again. But let’s say #2 won.

At this point, we have 2 unique numbers. So on the next spin, there’s a 2 in 37 chance that one of the next numbers is a repeat.

This goes on. The more unique numbers that win, the greater the chance that the next winning number will be a repeat.

It doesn’t help knowing this because the odds of any number spinning next are still 1 in 37.

If you discuss the matter with fans of the “law of a third”, usually they’ll be fixated on the fact they’ve never seen 37 unique numbers in 37 spins. They often find it difficult to understand what they consider a “law” is just basic probability that changes nothing.

Are you any different?

It’s easy to laugh at another player’s lack of knowledge. But is your strategy any different?

Firstly, despite the convenience of RNG roulette, live roulette with real dealers should be your focus. If you don’t understand why, see www.roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy/ which explains the typical fallacies and why they don’t work.

There is a constant war on roulette tips and systems forums between people who understand basic probability, and players with losing systems who falsely believe their system works.

Firstly, every system can win for a short while before losing – especially if betting progression is used. Secondly, most players aren’t educated enough to understand basic probability. And rather than make a proper attempt to understand it, they tend to call more knowledgeable players “naysayers”.

In particularly with pride and ego on the line, players on forums don’t like being told they have made mistakes. Unfortunately this impedes a player’s progress towards legitimately effective approaches.

Do your research

As with most things in life, whatever you think of, chances are others thought of it first. It’s the same with any casino game.

Before you dive into casino game, understand the history of the game, what has been tried, what works, and what fails – and why.

It makes no sense to waste half your life chasing something that isn’t possible. Don’t try to re-invent the wheel. Instead, see what others have tried. See what the professionals are saying and why.

Alternatively, waste countless hours trying to perfect systems and strategies that are wrong from the start, and guaranteed to eventually fail.